There was a strong uptrend in the early part of April that pushed the price of Comex gold to seven-year high on April 14. The recovery in the equity markets in the latter half of April played a key role in capping the rise in precious metals. As a result, they remained largely range bound in the second half of the month.
Comex gold gained 6.1% in April to settle at $1,694.2 an ounce while Comex silver, too, gained by 5.2% to settle at $14.9 an ounce. In the domestic market, gold futures at MCX gained 3.9% in April to settle at ₹44,906 per 10 gm. MCX silver futures gained 4% in April to close at ₹41,390 per kg.
In the short-term, Comex gold is likely to remain in the range of $1,650-1,800 zone. A strong breakout from the extremes of this range would set the tone for the next move in gold. Above $1,800, gold price could rally to $1,860-1,870 an ounce. On the other hand, a fall below $1,650 would be a sign of weakness and a further slide to $1,1550-1,580 is likely.
Comex silver has a strong resistance at the $16.8-17 zone. A move above $17 would be a sign of strength and the price could then rise to the subsequent target of $17.8-18.2 range. A fall below $14 would indicate weakness and silver could then slide to $12.4-12.8 zone. As long as $14 is not breached, there would a case for a rally to $17.8-18.
MCX gold futures ruled firm in April and also achieved the earlier mentioned target of ₹44,800-₹45,000. The short-term outlook is positive and a breakout past ₹46,800 would push the MCX gold price to the short-term target of ₹47,800-49,000. The trend would turn weak if the price falls below ₹44,000 per 10 gm.
MCX silver, too, edged past the earlier mentioned target of ₹43,500. The short-term outlook is positive, and the price could move up to ₹47,500-48,000 range per kg. A breakout above the immediate resistance at ₹45,000 would strengthen the positive view. A drop below ₹39,500 would be a sign of weakness and reduce the possibility of a rally to ₹47,500-48,000.
To summarise, precious metals presen a mixed picture. While the prices of gold and silver are stuck in a range in the international markets, the short-term outlook in domestic markets is relatively positive.
(The author is a Chennai-based analyst / trader. The views and opinions featured in this column are based on the analysis of short-term price movements in gold and silver futures at Comex and the Multi Commodity Exchange of India. This is not meant to be trading or investment advice)