Monsoon onset over Kerala likely on June 5 | India News

PUNE: The onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala this year is likely to be slightly delayed as compared to the normal date of onset of June 1, IMD said on Friday.
The monsoon onset over Kerala this year is likely to be on June 5, with a model error of + or – four days, it said. In India’s monsoon region, initial monsoon rains are experienced over south Andaman Sea and the monsoon winds then advance north-westwards across the Bay of Bengal.
D S Pai, Scientist and Head, Climate Research and Services, IMD, Pune told TOI, “The mid latitude westerly regime is south of its normal location indicated by above normal westerly activity over north India in recent times, which is not allowing monsoon circulation to establish over North Indian Ocean and is likely to delay monsoon onset over Kerala. However, the low pressure system that has formed over the South Bay of Bengal will help monsoon winds reach the Andaman Sea, indicating its advent over the Andaman Sea on May 22.”
IMD on Friday said that as per the new normal dates of monsoon onset/progress, the southwest monsoon will advance over the Andaman Sea around May 22. The earlier or old normal monsoon onset date over the Andaman Sea was May 20.
IMD on Friday said that the well-marked low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood was very likely to concentrate into a depression over the same region during the next 12 hours and further intensify into a cyclonic storm over central parts of south Bay of Bengal by May 16 evening. It was very likely to move northwestwards initially till May 17 and then re-curve north-northeastwards towards the north Bay of Bengal during May 18-20. Conditions were thus very likely to become favourable for advance of monsoon into some parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea and Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the next 48 hours, IMD said.
Pai, however, said that initially, the system over the Bay of Bengal will help strengthen the monsoon current, but gradually, the system would not only weaken but also taken some energy from the monsoon current. ” This is likely to cause some delay in monsoon onset over Kerala, as another push would be needed for it to move from the Andaman Sea to Kerala. But the delay of four days in monsoon onset over Kerala is within the normal range,” he said.
IMD had in April this year released new reference dates for monsoon onset/advance and withdrawal in cities across states. On Friday, it released a detailed report on the same. “As per the new normal onset/progress and withdrawal dates of the southwest monsoon over the country, its onset over Kerala is around June 1, nearly the same as the existing normal date. Its advance over most parts of Northeast India is around June 5, with a delay of about 1-4 days compared to the existing normal. As per the new normals, its coverage of most parts of the country except extreme northwest India is by the end of June, close to the existing normal date, but its coverage of the entire country is by July 8, exactly one week before the existing normal date of July 15. Over central India, the duration of the delay in the monsoon onset showed an increase as the monsoon progresses from eastern to western parts. The delay in the normal monsoon onset in the operational data is 3-7 days over east-central India, which increases to 10-14 days as the monsoon progresses towards west-central India and northwest India,” said Pai.

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